Client: The Seattle Public Library

Read the full report: The Future of Libraries

The Seattle Public Library (SPL) asked Houston Foresight to use scenario planning to help explore the future of libraries into 2032. The purpose of developing this long-term view was to identify and build support in the present towards a preferred future, as a compelling, plausible, and positive view of the future can inspire and motivate action in the present. At the same time, the potential for less desirable or negative futures was explored as well.

The project used Houston Foresight’s Framework Foresight method and Houston Archetype Technique (HAT) for exploring the future, along with a series of exploratory scenario and implications workshops to engage the SPL community in the process. A scenario landscape of six potential futures was developed in order to identify strategic issues, options for responding to them, and to suggest an integrated strategic approach to the future.

The findings that emerge tell a story of a future that is characterized by both promise and peril. Promise is perhaps most succinctly captured in what futurists refer to as a “preferred future.” Mindful of the research and analysis, the preferred future brings in the additional element of what the team would like to see happen. Indeed, the Ecosystem Anchor scenario describes a preferred future in which the Library is a hub at the center of the community and connecting its patrons to tailored information services, community partner services, and other impactful Library services that help make Seattle a thriving city. Peril is perhaps most acutely captured in what futurists call a “collapsed future.” How might the future turn out badly? The team at SPL needs to understand how this could happen so it can actively work against it or avoid that scenario. The other scenarios contain a mix of promise and peril. Each scenario will tend to present some unique challenges. The team identified two dozen potential strategic issues that include a mix of opportunities and threats. At the same time, the team was able to identify seven themes of change that seemed to be present no matter which scenario unfolded.

Client: Anonymous Texas foundation

The University of Houston Foresight Program took a deep dive into what a sustainable future for Texas could look like by 2040. Using its Framework Foresight methodology, the team explored over 250 emerging trends and uncovered nine key drivers of change that are shaping the state’s environmental, economic, and social future.

To bring these insights to life, the project created five possible scenarios that imagine very different paths Texas could take, from “business as usual” growth to bold, transformative futures driven by grassroots innovation or federal coordination. These scenarios aren’t predictions; they’re tools to spark new conversations, test strategies, and help Texans prepare for whatever comes next.

Some of the big focus areas include:

• Energy transitions: expanding renewables, hydrogen, and decentralized microgrids.
• Water security: tackling conservation, reuse, and smarter management to safeguard resources.
• Community resilience: preparing for extreme weather and the impacts of climate change.
• Public engagement: inspiring awareness, collaboration, and action on sustainability.

By exploring multiple possible futures, the Sustainable Texas Futures 2040 project offers practical insights and fresh ideas to help communities and decision-makers get ahead of change. It shows how Texas can balance growth with sustainability and set the stage to become a leader in innovation and environmental stewardship.

Client: Anonymous local government 

The University of Houston Foresight Program conducted a comprehensive foresight study on the potential futures of artificial intelligence (AI) in local government, with a 20-year outlook to 2043. The aim was to explore plausible outcomes, identify strategic opportunities and risks, and develop recommendations for municipal leaders to navigate the evolving AI landscape.

Domain Map

Using its Framework Foresight methodology, the team applied a systematic process: framing the focal question, scanning for signals of change, synthesizing trends and drivers, constructing scenarios, and developing strategic recommendations. Over 250 scan hits were collected and analyzed, supplemented with targeted research, interviews, and workshops with stakeholders.

The research identified thirteen key drivers of change, including technological capability, public sentiment, equity concerns, governance structures, infrastructure resilience, and workforce adaptation. These drivers informed five scenario archetypes for AI in local government by 2043:

1. Boom and Bust (Baseline) – AI adoption continues in waves of rapid growth and setbacks.
2. [No] Field of Dreams (Collapse) – Heavy investment fails due to neglecting the human element.
3. Getting Focused (New Equilibrium) – Governments recalibrate after overextension, leading to measured, effective AI use.
4. Blue Sky and AI (Transformation 1) – Strategic, people-centered AI integration enhances quality of life.
5. Safe and Secure (Transformation 2) – AI-driven security succeeds, but raises privacy and civil liberties concerns.

A recurring insight across scenarios was the necessity of people-centered AI—balancing technological investment with workforce training, citizen education, and equity safeguards. Over-reliance on flashy technology without human capacity building was identified as a significant risk.

Recommendations include adopting a “core-satellite” strategic approach—starting with manageable, high-impact AI applications (e.g., traffic management, real-time data dashboards, community engagement tools) while building toward broader transformation. The report emphasizes scenario-based preparedness, ensuring municipalities can adapt to a range of possible futures rather than predicting a single outcome.

The study concludes that a steady, human-focused AI strategy can enable municipalities to pioneer models that other communities will emulate, provided they address ethics, transparency, and public trust alongside technological capability.

Client: Civic Federal Credit Union (CFCU)

Read the full report: Future of Communities in North Carolina 2040

Houston Foresight was asked by a (then current) student working in North Carolina at the CFCU to help them explore the future of communities in North Carolina. Although the scope was North Carolina, we searched nationally and globally for future of community signals. This was a fun challenge as we are typically tasked to explore more concrete topics. We had to start by defining community. “A community is a group of people in the same place or those who have a shared identity from common needs, desires, or beliefs.”

We used a 2×2 Systems Scenario technique to form the scenarios. The systems technique is an inductive approach to scenarios that utilizes systems thinking in making connections and thinking through influences. These were framed by our two most important uncertainties: Measure of Success and Systemic Inequality.

One of our key takeaways was the importance and volatility of social tribalism – Will heightened social and political tribalism conflicts persist, or will a new generation turn towards harmony and pragmatic compromise by 2040?

Client: Lumina Foundation

Read the full report: Student Needs 2025 and Beyond

Thanks to the generous sponsor of Kiki Suarez and the Lumina Foundation, this was our first research project we kicked off in 2014. We explored the future of Student Needs 2025 and Beyond for Lumina Foundation, a leading higher education foundation with a goal of raising higher educational attainment levels from 40% today to 60% in 2025. We were tasked with providing Lumina a view of how student needs are evolving over the next dozen or so years. Put simply, could changes in student needs alter the equation of what higher education will need to provide by 2025 and beyond?

To do this, we assembled a team of two dozen faculty, alums, and students organized around six teams exploring what were considered evolving student needs related to Living, Learning, Working, Playing, Connecting, and Participating. We used Houston’s Framework Foresight process to produce forecasts of student needs and identify the implications and issues they suggest for higher education.

Client: NASA Langley Research Center

Read the Executive Summary The Future of Work 2050 and download the white paper.

NASA’s Langley Research Center (LaRC) needed to test its current planning activities against a longer-term view of the external future. To do this, NaRC asked the Houston Foresight program to collaborate on the development of a set of longer-term external scenarios on the future of work. The goal was to stretch thinking out to the world of work in 2050 and then “bring it back” to a strategic approach and initiatives that could be started in the present.

The project used scenario planning to create long-term views of the future of work. The scenarios will be used to “wind tunnel” the current plans and activities of NASA and enable them to make the appropriate adjustments to their current strategy.

The Houston Foresight team consisted of Andy Hines (PI), alum Maria Romero (Project Manager), and students Tim Morgan, George Paap, and Mathew Palubicki.