Looking back 20 years, The Economist magazine was the first to project Africa’s rising.
Map of Nigeria overlaying Map of USA (Adegoke, 2017)
They wrote future scenarios different than the 2011 reality of a poor, violent continent. They wrote about futures where the continent would rise demographically because 5 of the 10 fastest growing countries in the world are African. In fact, country of Nigeria is forecasted to equal the USA in population by 2050, even though the USA is almost 9 times the size of Nigeria – imagine moving the entire USA population into Nebraska and its surrounding states!
Depiction of how many countries fit on Africa’s continent (Inside/Out, 2020)
Most Americans don’t consider Africa a major player, but simply looking at the geographic size should make most Americans take “pause”. This famous map shows how the USA, China, India, and most of Europe fit inside the continent of Africa. In fact, the USA is basically the Sahara Desert!
Look beyond this geographic view and look forward 20 years. Focus on Africa’s economics, specifically small businesses which drive economic employment, political stability, and technological innovation. So, what is a future scenario for Africa’s small businesses? Specifically, does its future continue with the West with Europe, its historical colonizer and the USA, its historical big brother? Or a new set of partners, rising from the East?
The East is Easier
Map of Africa, India, and China
Looking East, the Chinese and Indians have long invested in Africa, so they enjoy political and cultural acceptance. Looking at the geography, Africa is an easy trading partner with China and India whose historical capital investments extend from Morocco to Mozambique.
In 20 years, a future for African small businesses includes transformation with Asian finances expanding agricultural businesses to feed the largest populations in India and China. African small businesses will have the natural resources needed by these two powerhouses and in return receive the majority of financing from the East: Chinese Fintechs and Indian investors.
This will birth a new generation of Blasian (Black + Asian) businesses and economic strength for the continent of Africa. By 2030, Africa’s population will be greater than India and China.
Africa’s small businesses transform into Blasian Businesses. The Indian Ocean becomes a small pond between the African continent, the Indian sub-continent and China as the three grow their economies and populations into the majority of the world’s GDP.
Where does that leave the West? Small.
The world map shown on scale with population size (Roser 2018)
Imagine this 2018 map scaled to population in 20 years?
The USA and Europe shrink as the Blasian strength of Africa, India and China dominate the world economies.
About the author
Deborah Bartlett MacArthur is a current graduate student of Foresight at the University of Houston. A retired Accenture partner, Deborah lives and works in Morocco. She transcends boundaries between the public sector as a university professor of entrepreneurship and strategy, the private sector with a change management consultancy, and the NGO sector leading a philanthropic foundation. She has worked pan-African for 16 years and aspires to bring greater foresight into the economic futures of African youth and small businesses.
