Looking for a good futures book for your reading pleasure? Jim Breaux recently reviewed Why Futures Studies by Eleonora Masini as a futures book worth picking up:
Published in 1993 by Grey Seal Books this slim book of 144 pages addresses a topic of great interest to everyone – the future. Eleonora Barbieri Masini pointedly refers to the time which has not yet occurred as ‘the futures’ in recognition that there is not a single future awaiting us, but several futures – possible, plausible and some probable futures.
Although the book is twenty years old (at this writing) the information on methodologies and the excellent descriptions of the major disciplinary approaches are fresh and useful. There is detailed information about the state of current (1993) futures efforts and programs in various countries which is necessarily frozen in time, but this is a small price to pay for this otherwise outstanding and accessible review of why the discipline of futures studies is relevant and how it can improve the human condition.
The book is divided into 10 chapters each with an excellent ‘further reading’ bibliography at the end. The overall Bibliography is 7 pages with references to texts and papers by luminaries such as Kahn, Toffler, and de Jouvenel, as well as a generous cross-section of futurists, strategists, academics, and practitioners from every corner of the globe.
Chapter 1 opens with the simple question, “Why think about the future today?” Here the author builds a sturdy foundation for the rest of the book by reviewing the imperative to think about the future, the difficulties of studying that which does not yet exist, and proposes a trio of fundamental principles for futures work.
The first principle proposed is that there is a constant dilemma between knowledge on one side and desires and fears on the other. The balance of these shades all understandings of the futures. The second principle proposed is that while there is little we can do about the past and the present – there is much to be done to influence the “future spaces”. And thirdly, there is not one future, but many – thus the term futures to describe what will be.
In chapter 2 Masini takes on definitions and characteristics of futures studies. Futures work is defined as extrapolative – projecting what is expected in the future from what is known about the past and present) and normative – setting goals for a future state and ideating the circumstances, actions and intentions required to accomplish them. Some might add a disruptive school which would include Black Swan and Wild Card futures scenarios which combine both; usually for reviewing dystopic futures [except in the case of Positive Wild Cards (Schlegel, 2012)] and indeed in Chapter 7 (Methodological Lines) Subjective or Intuitive Methods are discussed which rely on the knowledge, experience, talent, and intuition of experts.
Further in this chapter Masini defines several characteristics of Futures Studies distinguishing the discipline by their combinatorial use; transdisciplinarity, complexity, globality, normativity, scientificity, dynamicity, and participation. Each characteristic is addressed and related to the field and where necessary, each other.
Chapter 3 addresses the spatial and temporal dimensions of futures studies. Spatially four dimensions are delineated for consideration in futures work, local, nation/state, regional and global. Masini explains how temporal perspective differences in various cultures affect the reception of the futures work and even the perceived value of the work. Also in this chapter the key futures concepts of Complexity and Uncertainty and Discontinuity are explored and related to the discipline.
Chapter 4 and 5 briefly review the philosophical, ethical, implications of futures studies and a list of six limits which Masini states must be considered in all futures work lest it fall into superficiality by lack of rigor. The six are: Self-Alteration , Psychological Aspects, Irrational Aspects, Implicit Hypotheses, Data Availability, and ‘A posteriori’ Verification.
Chapter 6 briefly addresses several key terms with definitions and then treats the reader to an in-depth review of the state of the futures field (1993) in global context as well as the evolution and use of futures studies work by various individuals, institutions, and governments.
Chapter 7 thoroughly explores futures studies methodologies beginning with objective methods – both extrapolative and normative, touches on subjective, and several specific methods including cross-impact matrix, TOP multiple perspectives (Linstone, 1984) and ending with a sober reflection on the impact of cultural aspects related to future studies methods. Various futures studies methods tend to fit specific cultures better than others.
Chapter 8 is dedicated to Objective methods and explores the use, application and foibles of scenarios in depth. A few paragraphs are dedicated to environmental scanning, and the methods of strategic and issues management, and risk analysis.
Three subjective methods are covered in Chapter 9. The Delphi method is explored thoroughly, the Cross-Impact method and the Multiple Perspectives approach are also described.
Finally chapter 10 reviews global models as systemic methods and Masini takes us under the hood and behind the scenes in the development and use of several important models such as the Limits of Growth (Meadows, 1972) and The Global 2000 (1981).
In the concluding chapter Masini says, “I have tried to bring together what has been done in theory and in praxis in the field of Futures Studies, in order that whoever wishes to embark on such studies may do so on the clearest possible basis.” Indeed this is accomplished! While many details are necessarily omitted, the detailed Further Reading sections and the generous Bibliography are the bread crumbs left to guide the interested reader afield.