Tag Archive

Student Craig Perry’s Review of Superforecasting in APF Compass

Published on October 1, 2017 By Kimberly Daniels

In the July 2017 issue of the APF’s Compass, foresight student Craig Perry reviews Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction, by Phillip E. Tetlock and Dan Gardner. The book, which has received mixed reviews, though mostly positive, puts forward the possibility of making fairly accurate short-term predictions about the future through multiple-source evidence gathering, probabilistic […]

Single Versus Alternative Futures

Published on October 5, 2016 By Andy

As part of Futures Research class, we have a discussion forum on the following question: “Why do you think it has taken so long for people to accept that the future is a set of multiple possibilities? And why some of them still prefer to try to predict the future?” Below is what I thought was […]

Can We Really Predict: NPR’s Freakonomics Gives Us Insight On Tale Of The Future

Published on August 27, 2011 By Christopher Manfredi

“Never make predictions, especially about the future.”   -Casey Stengel Long held beliefs and deeply engrained truths permeate in futures studies as a practice.  We’re not fortune tellers. We say we do not predict the future because the future is unpredictable.  Trends make waves, but there is no permanance in strictly trends.  Images can be lofty, […]